Is China on the path to a significant structural surplus in lead supply?

From the mid-1990s through until 2007, China was a significant net exporter of refined lead. Then, for several years after the Global Financial Crisis, imports and exports were roughly balanced. In the years since 2017, China has been both a sizeable importer and exporter of lead, setting a record for imports in 2024. CHR Metals’ data show that China’s lead consumption has continued to grow in recent years even as lead demand has faltered in the major markets of Europe and North America. However, strong growth in sales of electric vehicles in China may now be having a negative impact on the domestic market for SLI batteries and, as a consequence, demand for lead. Current and future dynamics of China’s lead production and consumption will be discussed with a view to assessing the risk of China developing a structural surplus in lead supply, resulting in consistent and significant exports of refined lead.